home prices knoxville Archives

Knox County Housing Market Snapshot | July 2024

HOW ‘BOUT THOSE INTEREST RATES?!

Over the past month or so, we experienced a slow and steady decline in mortgage interest rates, but nothing substantial. That changed when the higher-than-expected unemployment numbers came out on Friday, August 2nd, sending rates on a sharper downward trajectory.

Also, there is growing sentiment that the Federal Reserve will lower the fed funds rate by 50 basis points in September. While this drop won’t have a direct impact on mortgage rates, the effect should continue to put downward pressure on rates.

Median home prices in the Greater Knoxville area remain higher than last year, despite a growing supply of homes on the market. The number of active listings in Knox County is at its highest point since late 2020.

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Knox County Housing Market Snapshot | June 2024

Overall, June was a relatively uneventful month for the local housing market. That said, there are signs of changes coming…

Mortgage interest rates jumped up in the middle of June but regressed back down to around 7%. The expectations from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Banker’s Association, and the National Association of Realtors are that rates should continue to move downward to around 6.8% by the end of this year. Lower interest rates could provide some much-needed improvement to housing affordability and potentially lead to more home buyers entering the market.

The most notable trend is the continued rise in housing inventory. The number of active/unsold listings in Knox County is 30% higher than it was a year ago. Higher housing inventory should continue to put downward pressure on home prices, but for now, the high demand for homes in our area continues to push home prices slightly higher.

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Knox County Housing Market Snapshot | May 2024

WHERE ARE HOME PRICES GOING?

While average and median home prices in the Knoxville area are still slightly above what they were at this time last year, will this continue or will they begin to drop as housing inventory rises?

Despite interest rates dropping over the past few weeks, they still aren’t low enough to drastically improve home buyer demand. That said, most credible mortgage experts and economists still predict interest rates to be on a downward trend by the end of this year. Lower interest rates mean more home buyers.

The continued upward trend in the cost of living in Knoxville looks like it’s starting to significantly impact people in our area. Per capita income hasn’t kept up with the rise in prices in many cases, leaving many people with less disposable income and likely contributing to the rapid increase in overall consumer debt (ex. personal loans, credit cards). As a result, it’s highly likely that we will see more people having to sell their homes to access the equity they have accumulated in their homes over the past few years in order to keep up with living expenses.

On the flip side, Knoxville’s unemployment rate remains extremely low. There also continues to be a steady flow of new higher-paying jobs from companies moving into the Knoxville area. These are two major reasons why we continue to see home price appreciation in our area.

If home price growth remains flat, interest rates drop into the low 6%/high 5% range, and the unemployment rate stays low, we should expect to see a healthy local housing market heading into 2025.

Knox County Housing Market Snapshot | April 2024

STEADY AS SHE GOES…

Overall, there has been very little change in the Knox County housing market over the past few months. Home prices have remained consistent despite rising housing inventory.

The number of new listings that hit the market in April was the highest monthly total since August of 2022. Given that the average number of days that homes are on the market and the sales-to-list price ratio have both remained steady is evidence that there is still very strong demand for homes in our area.

The big news for the housing market in April was the higher-than-expected inflation numbers, which kept the Federal Reserve from lowering rates. In turn, mortgage interest rates increased over the 7% threshold. While many experts predict that rates will eventually decline, the timing of this downward trend has been delayed.

That said, we are eagerly awaiting lower interest rates to help ease the housing affordability issues we’re experiencing throughout the county.

Despite higher rates, the number of jobs and people coming to Knox County continues to fuel the demand for housing in our area. Housing experts still predict slight growth in home prices over the next few years.

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Knox County Housing Market Snapshot | March 2024

ARE WE AT THE TOP?!

Housing inventory is not only rising in the Knoxville area but all over the country. More homes hit the market last March than in any other March over the past 3 years. The higher supply of homes has helped to stabilize home prices after the wild ride we’ve experienced over the past 3 years. However, the number of available homes on the market is still way below historical averages from before the pandemic.

The question is now, are we finally at the top of the market? Going forward, the answer to this question will largely depend on where you live. For Knoxville, it’s unlikely that we see any drop in average home prices in the foreseeable future.

While a higher supply of homes is a welcomed trend for home buyers, the demand for housing in our area is still quite substantial, despite the higher interest rates we’ve experienced over the past 18 months. Most homes are still selling at or very close to their asking prices. That said, the number of homes selling over the asking is significantly less than it was a few years ago. Homes are staying on the market longer with relatively few of them in multiple offer scenarios.

If mortgage interest rates drop into the 5% to low 6% range that many expect later this year, this could spark an even higher demand for homes. If our housing inventory remains at historic lows, this could fuel another housing market frenzy driven by multiple offers and homes selling well over the asking prices.

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Knox County Housing Market Snapshot | February 2024

EMBRACING THE CURRENT REAL ESTATE MARKET

After a steady decline to start the year, mortgage interest rates have crept back up over the past few weeks due to better than expected US economic news. The expectation is still that rates will decline throughout 2024 and into 2025. However, the rate and significance of this trend will likely be longer and slower.

Despite slightly higher interest rates and higher sales prices, the number of homebuyers seems to be slowly increasing as we enter the spring. The overall demand for housing is still very high in the Knoxville area, driven mainly by a robust job market and favorable cost of living relative to many other parts of the country.

We’re also seeing more and more homebuyers actively looking to purchase homes who have been patiently waiting on the sidelines over the past 3 to 4 years. Most of these people are saying that their motivation to buy a house right now is linked to changes in their families and personal lives.

From a home seller’s standpoint, the number of days-on-market continues to rise. However, average home prices still remain higher than they were at this time last year.

We do expect the overall housing inventory to be on the rise this year. If this inventory gets high enough, it could negatively impact home prices. That said, we are still pretty far away from that scenario coming to fruition with our local housing inventory being 1/3 of what it was in 2018/2019.

Knox County Housing Market Snapshot | January 2024

SLOW & STEADY

Similar trends from the previous 2 months continued in January as the number of homes on the market rose and interest rates slowly declined.

That said, average sales prices in Knox County are up around 10% compared to this time last year. In addition, most reputable sources within the real estate industry predict that home prices will continue appreciating in our area for 2024.

The declining trend for mortgage interest rates is a welcomed one for homebuyers. Housing affordability has improved tremendously since last October when interest rates were well above 8%.

The most dramatic change in the metrics we follow is with the average number of days a house is on the market. Just a few months ago, the average number was 19 days, and now we are up to 33 days. This increase is to be expected given that the number of homes hitting the market is rising.

However, don’t be fooled into thinking we’re entering a “buyer’s market”. We’re still pretty far away from that type of a real estate market. For some perspective, the average “days-on-market” for Knox County in 2016 was over 120 days.

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Knox County Housing Market Snapshot | December 2023

SO WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

2023 has come to a close, and as expected, we did not see a real estate market crash. Home prices are still up around 9% from the end of 2022.

While some appreciation is projected for 2024 (especially in the lower price points) home prices, as a whole, appear to have plateaued in Knox County. The median home price in our area has been relatively flat since September. With interest rates declining, this is a welcomed sight for those looking to buy a home.

Homebuyers should also enjoy more homes to choose from in 2024 as the inventory of homes for sale is projected to rise throughout the year.

As a result of rising inventory, home sellers should expect to experience a longer amount of time on the market. With buyers having more homes to choose from, pricing one’s home correctly will be crucial to getting it sold quickly.

HOWEVER, if interest rates continue to drop into the low-to-mid 5% range, another tsunami of homebuyers could enter the market. This scenario could potentially put Knox County back into a red-hot real estate market status with multiple offers and very short amounts of time on the market for listings that are properly listed.

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Knoxville Housing Market Snapshot | November 2023

INTEREST RATES ARE COMING DOWN…

As predicted mortgage interest rates have begun a fairly steady decline since late October when they hovered around 8.25%. This favorable trend is expected to continue into 2024. In fact, both Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association predict interest rates will continue dropping well into 2025. This is an optimal trend for a mortgage interest rate buydown if you want to buy a home right now (you can contact Debbie Windisch at Union Home Mortgage for details).

The average home sales price in Knoxville is still up just under 10% compared to this time last year. A limited housing inventory, a low unemployment rate, and many new higher-paying jobs coming to the area are all having a major impact on local home prices.

The outlook for 2024 is still positive for the Knoxville housing market. There are no signs of any significant home price depreciation coming. However, housing inventory is expected to rise throughout the year, so those selling their homes should expect a longer time on the market and far fewer multiple-offer scenarios for homes listed at or near market value.

Knoxville Housing Market Snapshot | October 2023

EYES ARE ON INTEREST RATES

After weeks of consistent increases, mortgage rates dropped below 8% after news that the Federal Reserve did not raise the “fed funds rate”. This is welcomed news for the housing market. Most experts and leaders in the mortgage industry are still predicting declining interest rates in 2024. However, the timing of this trend is still unclear.

As for home prices, there is no decline/depreciation in sight, especially for Knoxville. The average home sales price in Knoxville was up almost 10% last month compared with October 2022. Despite decreasing demand (buyers in the market) due to higher interest rates, the overall supply of available homes remains extremely low.

However, there are indications that home prices should stabilize as we head into the new year. The Knoxville housing inventory has been increasing steadily since the late summer.

The home absorption rate (number of months it will take to buy up the current number of homes on the market) is the highest it has been in the past 12 months at 1.61 months. That said, this number still reflects a strong seller’s market, but the upward absorption rate trend indicates that we’re moving towards a more balanced market. For some perspective, most economists consider an absorption rate of 4 to 6 months to be a balanced market and anything over 6 months to be a strong buyer’s market. We’re still VERY FAR from either of those scenarios.

If you’re interested in what the real estate market is like in your area, check out our local market reports.